GHG Mitigation Pathway Scenarios for Metropolitan Governments under an Equality-Based Carbon Budget in the Building Sector

Yu-Min Kim

doi:10.22696/jkiaebs.20250040

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2025 Vol.19, Issue 6 Preview Page Next Page

Research Article

GHG Mitigation Pathway Scenarios for Metropolitan Governments under an Equality-Based Carbon Budget in the Building Sector 건물부문 평등주의 탄소예산 적용을 통한 광역지자체별 온실가스 감축경로 시나리오

30 December 2025. pp. 466-478

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Abstract

This study proposes a methodology for designing equality-based carbon budget pathways for the building sector across Korea’s 17 metropolitan governments, grounded in the 2030NDC and the 2050 carbon neutrality scenario. National annual emission targets for the building (direct and indirect) and transformation sectors are interpreted as a 2018–2030 carbon budget, with missing years linearly interpolated. Current allocation practice is represented as a grandfathering principle, after which an egalitarian (population-share) principle is introduced to construct adjusted scenarios with convergence years in 2030, 2040, and 2050. National trajectories are approximated using a piecewise-linear pathway with a single turning point (direct: 2026; indirect: 2028), from which annual reduction slopes and local carbon budgets are derived. Results indicate that high per-capita emitting regions face steeper and earlier reductions under the egalitarian framework, while more populous regions experience a relative easing of reduction burdens. For the direct building sector under convergence in 2030, Seoul’s 2030 target decreases from 7.59 to 6.21 MtCO₂, whereas Gyeonggi-do’s increases from 7.39 to 9.74 MtCO₂. In addition, Seoul’s required annual reduction rate increases from 192 to 347 ktCO₂/yr up to the 2026 turning point and from 542 to 577 ktCO₂/yr thereafter, illustrating the front-loaded mitigation implied by egalitarian convergence. The proposed framework supports consistent target setting between national and local levels and provides a transparent basis for integrating alternative equity principles in future studies.

Keywords

Carbon budget

Equality principle

Building sector

Emission pathways

Metropolitan local governments

키워드

탄소예산

평등주의

건물부문

배출경로

광역지자체

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Information

Publisher :Korean Institute of Architectural Sustainable Environment and Building Systems
Publisher(Ko) :한국건축친환경설비학회
Journal Title :Journal of Korean Institute of Architectural Sustainable Environment and Building Systems
Journal Title(Ko) :한국건축친환경설비학회논문집
Volume : 19
No :6
Pages :466-478
Received Date : 2025-12-04
Revised Date : 2025-12-19
Accepted Date : 2025-12-23
DOI :https://doi.org/10.22696/jkiaebs.20250040

Journal of Korean Institute of Architectural Sustainable Environment and Building Systems ISSN:1976-6483(Print) 2586-0666(Online) 한국건축친환경설비학회논문집

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