Development of an Indoor Temperature Reaching Time Prediction Model Based on Indoor Temperature Time-Series Data for Radiant Floor Heating Systems in Multi-Family Housing

In-Tae Hwang; Jong-Sung Lee

doi:10.22696/jkiaebs.20260025

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2026 Vol.20, Issue 4 Preview Page Next Page

Research Article

Development of an Indoor Temperature Reaching Time Prediction Model Based on Indoor Temperature Time-Series Data for Radiant Floor Heating Systems in Multi-Family Housing 공동주택 바닥난방 시스템의 실내온도 시간변화 데이터 기반 도달시간 예측모델 개발

30 August 2026. pp. 308-321

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Abstract

This study developed and evaluated indoor temperature reaching-time prediction models for radiant floor heating systems in multi-family housing using indoor temperature time-series data derived from three-dimensional transient heat-transfer simulations. The dataset consisted of 720 reaching-time samples derived from 180 independent indoor temperature rise curves for target temperatures of 20–23°C under different floor levels, room types, outdoor temperatures, supply hot-water temperatures, and pipe pitches. Therefore, the 720 samples should be interpreted as target-temperature-specific derived samples rather than 720 independent operating conditions. Group k-fold cross-validation based on Case ID was applied to avoid data leakage among samples extracted from the same temperature-rise curve. The refitted power-law functional form achieved R²=0.96, RMSE=7.4 min, and MAE=5.4 min, while the log-target second-degree polynomial Ridge model showed R²=0.95, RMSE=7.7 min, and MAE=5.2 min. Rather than claiming superior accuracy over the existing relation, this study aims to maintain a comparable level of predictive accuracy while extending the model structure to multiple target temperatures, spatial conditions, temperature-difference variables, multicollinearity diagnostics, and control- oriented decision making. The results should be interpreted within the simulated winter outdoor-temperature range, and further field calibration is required for broader operating conditions.

Keywords

Multi-family housing

Radiant floor heating

Indoor temperature reaching time

Time-series data

Prediction model

Predictive control

키워드

공동주택

바닥난방

실내온도 도달시간

시계열 데이터

예측모델

예측제어

References

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Information

Publisher :Korean Institute of Architectural Sustainable Environment and Building Systems
Publisher(Ko) :한국건축친환경설비학회
Journal Title :Journal of Korean Institute of Architectural Sustainable Environment and Building Systems
Journal Title(Ko) :한국건축친환경설비학회논문집
Volume : 20
No :4
Pages :308-321
Received Date : 2026-06-13
Revised Date : 2026-07-07
Accepted Date : 2026-07-23
DOI :https://doi.org/10.22696/jkiaebs.20260025

Journal of Korean Institute of Architectural Sustainable Environment and Building Systems ISSN:1976-6483(Print) 2586-0666(Online) 한국건축친환경설비학회논문집

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